Another Maple Leafs Playoff Disappointment: Big Changes Ahead, But Are They Necessary?

The Toronto Maple Leafs` 2025 playoff journey occasionally showed promise, but the outcome was all too familiar. They were heavily defeated 6-1 by the Florida Panthers in Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena, met with boos from the home crowd.

Since their spirited challenge against the Washington Capitals in the 2017 NHL playoffs, the Maple Leafs have reached the postseason for nine consecutive years. During this period, they`ve been eliminated in six Game 7s, advanced past the first round just twice, and accumulated only 31 playoff wins.

To put this in perspective, the current Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, have achieved 37 playoff victories in just the last three seasons.

Given their recurring playoff failures and upcoming contract expiries, the Maple Leafs roster is widely expected to undergo significant changes before the 2025-26 season begins. Key players Mitch Marner and John Tavares, part of the so-called `Core Four`, are nearing unrestricted free agency.

Furthermore, Matthew Knies is due for restricted free agency. The 22-year-old forward had a productive season, scoring 29 goals and 29 assists, making him eligible for a substantial salary increase.

Is it Time for a Roster Shake-Up?

The argument for moving on from Tavares and Marner is straightforward. Toronto retains two other prime stars, Auston Matthews and William Nylander, leading the team. Assuming he`s re-signed, Matthew Knies is also developing into a significant offensive threat.

Theoretically, freeing up salary cap space could allow the Maple Leafs to strengthen the supporting players around Matthews, Nylander, and Knies. In the recent playoffs, the combined production from the `Core Four` and Knies accounted for most of the team`s offense, with the rest of the roster contributing very little.

After repeatedly attempting to succeed with largely the same core group and achieving identical disappointing results, the Maple Leafs organization may feel compelled to dismantle the core and implement drastic roster changes. Considering the visible passion of the fanbase in Maple Leaf Square and throughout Toronto, such a move would likely be welcomed.

However, is there a compelling argument for maintaining the current course and giving this core group more opportunities? This alternative might be more attractive than initially perceived.

Why Keeping the Core Together Might Make Sense

Firstly, the players within the `Core Four` and Matthew Knies are undeniably talented. Marner is capable of scoring 100 points and influences play across all three zones when performing optimally. The 34-year-old Tavares just completed a strong season with 38 goals and 74 points.

Players of this caliber are difficult to acquire. Replacing Marner and Tavares would be challenging for the Maple Leafs, particularly through free agency, as the 2025 free agent pool outside of these two lacks comparable elite talent.

While names like Matt Duchene, Sam Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Brock Boeser are among the more notable potential free agents this summer, they are not direct replacements for Tavares and Marner`s impact, especially considering their likely salary demands. These are good players with differing playoff experiences, but they don`t fill the potential void.

This suggests that Toronto`s general manager, Brad Treliving, would need to explore trades or potentially restricted free agency to find suitable additions. However, both avenues present significant difficulties.

The Maple Leafs lack a first-round draft pick for the next three years and possess only two second-round picks during that period. This significantly limits their ability to make a major trade without trading away an existing roster player. Furthermore, they are unlikely to have the necessary draft pick compensation to sign a prominent restricted free agent via an offer sheet.

Given these limitations, it`s plausible that the team could experience a decline in performance during the 2025-26 season if Marner and Tavares depart.

The clamor for change in Toronto is understandable and arguably justified. The NHL is driven by results, and this core hasn`t delivered playoff success. Yet, one must question whether the alternative – a roster without key players 16 (Marner) and 91 (Tavares) – would truly be an improvement or merely different. The grass might not be greener than anticipated.

While it might require Tavares accepting a lower salary and Marner signing below his potential market value, retaining this core and giving them perhaps one or two more attempts to overcome their playoff hurdles might be the most viable short-term strategy for the Maple Leafs.