The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs kick off with a Central Division showdown as the Dallas Stars, led by Jamie Benn, host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche in Game 1 on Saturday. This first-round matchup is a rematch of last year`s second-round series, where the Stars prevailed in six games. Dallas finished the regular season four points ahead of Colorado, but enters the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The Avalanche, who won two of three regular-season meetings against Dallas, have lost three of their last five games. Stars forward Jason Robertson will be sidelined for Game 1 due to a lower-body injury.
Game time is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas. Colorado is favored with a -134 money line, while Dallas is the underdog at +112. The over/under for total goals is 5.5. Leading sports models provide NHL predictions for this game.
Statistical models are used to simulate NHL games 10,000 times to generate predictions. These models have shown profitability in the regular season, particularly for puck-line and over/under picks, demonstrating a strong performance and potential returns for informed bettors.
Here are three recommended bets for the Avalanche vs. Stars game on Saturday:
Stars to win (+118 on the money line)
Jason Robertson`s injury contributes to Colorado being favored, but models suggest betting value on Dallas as the home underdog. The Stars had a strong 28-13 home record and profitable money line results during the regular season. Dallas also holds an advantage in net with goalie Jake Oettinger`s 47 games of playoff experience and a 2.46 goals against average, contrasting with the playoff debut of Colorado`s Mackenzie Blackwood. Models predict Dallas wins in 53% of simulations.
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+150)
MacKinnon concluded the regular season with 32 goals, including eight against Central Division opponents. While he didn`t score against Dallas in the regular season, he scored a crucial game-tying goal against them in Game 1 last year. Models estimate his chance of scoring in this game to be nearly 50%, which is higher than the implied odds of this prop bet.
Over 5.5 goals (-125)
The over has hit in all three regular-season games between these teams, including a 4-3 overtime Avalanche victory in their last matchup on March 16. Colorado has scored four goals in each of their last two games. Models project a combined 6.3 goals, with the over occurring in approximately 60% of simulations.
Elton Marrow