The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Florida Panthers in a decisive Game 7 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals on Sunday. Toronto forced this winner-take-all contest by snapping a three-game losing streak with a 2-0 shutout victory in Game 6 on Friday in Florida. The puck drops at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario.
According to the latest odds for the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 7, Florida is listed as the favorite at -130 on the money line, while Toronto is the underdog at +109. The total number of goals is set at 5.5. Florida is also favored on the puck line at -1.5 with +205 odds. The article recommends reviewing predictions from SportsLine`s validated computer model before placing bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NHL game 10,000 times, has demonstrated strong performance in the 2025 NHL playoffs. Entering the second week of the conference semifinals, it held a combined record of 79-55 on top-rated puck-line and over/under bets, generating over $1,600 in returns for those wagering $100.
Model`s Best Bets for Game 7:
Over 5.5 Total Goals (+136)
The model favors the Over 5.5 total goals. Four out of the six games in the series have seen at least seven goals, comfortably exceeding this total, including all three contests played in Toronto. Toronto won the initial two home games with scores of 5-4 and 4-3, although they later suffered a 6-1 home defeat in Game 5. Both teams were among the league`s better-scoring clubs during the regular season; Toronto ranked seventh with 3.26 goals per game, and Florida was fifteenth with 3.0 goals per game. The SportsLine model`s simulations project the Over to occur in more than 50% of scenarios.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)
The model also recommends Carter Verhaeghe to register over 2.5 shots on goal. He is averaging 2.5 shots on goal per game in this series and ranks second on the Panthers with 6.5 total shot attempts per game. Verhaeghe has scored two goals in his last four games, including the crucial goal in Florida`s 2-0 Game 4 win that leveled the series. He showed aggressiveness in Game 6 with four shot attempts, tying for the team lead. Given that Game 7 is a winner-take-all scenario, the model anticipates the regular-season 20-goal scorer will maintain an aggressive approach.
Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-115)
Another prediction from the model is for Auston Matthews to record over 3.5 shots on goal. Matthews scored his third goal of the postseason in Game 6 and has registered three or more shots on goal in all but one playoff game so far. He has accumulated 24 total shots throughout this series. Matthews finished third on the team in goals during the regular season with 33. His four shots in Game 6 were the most among all Toronto players. Given his importance as one of only three different Maple Leafs players to score over the past three games, the model forecasts another aggressive performance from Matthews.
Torin Vale