The Vegas Golden Knights are fighting to avoid elimination as they host the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals series on Wednesday. Connor McDavid and the Oilers took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a 3-0 shutout victory over the Knights in Game 4, which took place in Edmonton on Monday. The puck drop for Game 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.
According to the latest odds for this matchup, Vegas is the favorite on the moneyline at -127, meaning a $127 wager is required to win $100. Edmonton is listed as the underdog at +107, returning $107 on a $100 bet. The projected total for combined goals is set at 6.5. The Golden Knights also have a puck line of -1.5 with odds of +187.
These predictions are based on a respected projection model that simulates every NHL game thousands of times. The model has a strong track record on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks throughout the 2025 NHL playoffs.
Recommended Betting Picks for Golden Knights vs. Oilers:
Under 6.5 goals (+110)
While both teams possess significant offensive talent, the model predicts that defense and goaltending will be the deciding factors in this critical Game 5. The Under total has been a successful bet in two of Adin Hill`s last three starts at home in T-Mobile Arena. Furthermore, Vegas maintained a strong defensive record at home during the regular season, allowing an average of just 2.41 goals per game. Adding to this, Stuart Skinner recently posted a 23-save shutout performance in Game 4. The projection model indicates that the outcome will fall under 6.5 goals in nearly 60% of its simulations.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal (+120)
Edmonton`s star player, No. 97, has consistently registered four or more shots on goal in four of his last five games, including hitting five shots in each of the last two contests. So far in the playoffs, he has accumulated 40 shots through 10 games, which is already more than half the total shots he recorded during Edmonton`s entire previous Stanley Cup playoff run last year (75).
Torin Vale 
Elton Marrow