Jets vs. Stars Game 1 Predictions, Odds, and Picks

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs continue with a conference semifinal showdown between the Winnipeg Jets and the Dallas Stars, kicking off with Game 1 on Wednesday at Canada Life Center in Winnipeg. Both teams advanced after intense seven-game series in the first round; Dallas overcame the Colorado Avalanche with a 4-2 victory in Game 7 on Saturday, while Winnipeg secured a thrilling 4-3 overtime win against the St. Louis Blues on Sunday. The opening puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.

The current odds favor Dallas as the money line favorite at -125 (bet $125 to win $100), with Winnipeg listed as the underdog at +105 (bet $100 to win $105). The total goals over/under is set at 5.5, and Dallas has a puck line of -1.5 (+202).

Insights for this matchup come from a proven sports projection model that simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. Heading into the 2025 NHL playoffs conference semifinals, this model boasts a strong record, going 78-55 on top-rated NHL puck line and over/under wagers, yielding over $1,500 for those betting $100 per game. Here are some top picks generated by the model for the Jets vs. Stars Game 1:

Prediction: Over 5.5 Goals (-130)

During the first round, the Over cashed in four of seven games for Dallas and six of seven for Winnipeg. Jets starting goaltender and Vezina Trophy finalist Connor Hellebuyck posted a 3.85 goals-against average in the opening series and was notably pulled from consecutive starts in St. Louis after allowing five goals in Game 3 and six in Game 4. Injury concerns for Winnipeg defensemen Josh Morrissey and Logan Stanley could further stress the Jets` defense. On the Dallas side, defenseman Miro Heiskanen`s status for Game 1 is uncertain due to a knee injury. The projection model indicates a high probability, well over 50% in simulations, that more than 5.5 goals will be scored.

Prediction: Mikko Rantanen 2+ Points (+230)

Mikko Rantanen proved crucial in Dallas`s first-round series win over the Avalanche, especially with top scorer Jason Robertson sidelined. Rantanen accumulated 11 points (five goals, six assists) in the final three games against his former team, including a hat trick in Game 7. He boasts a strong record against the Jets throughout his career, with 28 points (10 goals, 18 assists) in 31 games, including a goal and an assist against Winnipeg during the 2024-25 regular season. Odds for this player prop are listed at +230.

Prediction: Kyle Connor Anytime Goal-Scorer (+140)

Kyle Connor netted four goals across seven games in the initial playoff round for the Jets. Although his last goal was in Game 5 against St. Louis, he faces a Dallas Stars team he found success against in the 2024-25 regular season, scoring four goals in four meetings. The odds for Connor to score at any point in Game 1 are +140.