The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to embark on their journey for their first Stanley Cup victory since 1967 this Sunday, as they welcome the Ottawa Senators for Game 1 of their first-round matchup in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. As the Atlantic Division champions and boasting the second-highest points tally in the Eastern Conference with 108, Toronto enters as a strong contender. Ottawa, still in pursuit of their first Cup, qualified as the top wild-card team in the Eastern Conference this season.
The game is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET puck drop at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. According to current betting odds, Toronto is favored to win.
Statistical models, which have shown profitability in past NHL regular seasons, are providing predictions for this game. These models have been particularly accurate with top-rated puck-line and over/under picks.
Here are the model`s top three recommendations for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators game on Sunday:
Game Predictions
Maple Leafs Victory
Despite Ottawa`s 3-0 sweep in the regular season series against Toronto, the Maple Leafs are favored to win Game 1 at home. Toronto`s strong regular season performance, including a positive record for money-line bettors and a solid home record, supports this prediction. Furthermore, the Maple Leafs are on a strong winning streak heading into the 2025 NHL playoffs. Projections indicate a 62% chance of a Maple Leafs victory in simulations.
Over 5.5 Goals
While the initial two games between these teams saw low combined scores, their most recent match featured six goals. Ottawa also has a recent trend of games exceeding the over/under. Key offensive players from both teams are projected to have a significant chance of scoring. Overall goal projections suggest a slight edge towards the total score exceeding 5.5 goals.
Auston Matthews – Anytime Goalscorer
Auston Matthews, a high-scoring center, has consistently performed well against the Senators throughout his career, with a strong goal record in past matchups. He has also found the net against them in their recent games this season. Predictions indicate a high probability of Matthews scoring in this game.
For further NHL predictions and insights, especially for over/under and puck-line selections, consider exploring expert sports analysis platforms.
Elton Marrow