The Stanley Cup playoffs are here, and Saturday features three Game 1 series, including a big matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. These Central Division rivals know each other well. This season, the Avalanche won two out of three games against the Stars, one in overtime. The Stars ended the regular season with 106 points, ranking third in the Western Conference. Colorado was close behind with 102 points.
This game will have many star players, especially for the Avalanche, with Nathan MacKinnon. He was second in the league for points and tied for the most assists this season.
Even though they are playing away, the Avalanche are favored to win. The betting odds from SportsLine Consensus show the Avalanche at -152 to win, while the Stars are underdogs at +127. The Avalanche are also favored by 1.5 goals, and the total goals expected in the game are set at 6.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this NHL game 10,000 times. It provides top player prop picks for each game under the `Prop Picks` section. These picks are rated up to five stars and can help in creating winning parlays on various betting sites.
Here are the SportsLine model`s top three player prop picks for Saturday`s Avalanche-Stars game, including the potential payout if combined into a same-game parlay.
Avalanche-Stars SGP (+357)
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130): 5 stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 shots on goal (-188): 5 stars
MacKinnon is a top NHL player, scoring 116 points and 84 assists this year. He`s also very offensive, leading the league with 320 shots. He was one of only two players with 300+ shots this season. His shots on goal prop is at 3.5, and the model predicts he`ll go over, projecting 4.6 shots for this game. This is rated as a 5-star pick for the Avalanche-Stars game. MacKinnon has exceeded 3.5 shots in six of his last eight games against strong teams, averaging 4.9 shots per game in those matchups. Another 5-star prop bet for MacKinnon is the Under on his total points prop of 1.5.
The model also predicts Nelson to go Over his shots on goal prop, also rated 5 stars. Nelson has gone over his shots on goal prop in four of his last five away games against winning teams, averaging 3.6 shots per game. He is projected to have 2.5 shots on goal in Dallas on Saturday.
The model also favors Necas to exceed his shots on goal prop, another 5-star pick. His line is also 1.5. Necas is projected to have 3.0 shots on goal on Saturday and averages 2.8 shots per game in his last five road games.
Elton Marrow