The Florida Panthers are set to host the Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 6 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals series on Friday. The defending champions currently hold a 3-2 advantage in the series, following a convincing 6-1 victory in Game 5 held in Toronto on Wednesday. Puck drop at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.
In the latest odds for the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs matchup, Florida is listed as the favorite with a moneyline of -243 (meaning you risk $243 to win $100). Toronto is the underdog at +197 (risk $100 to win $197). The over/under for the total number of goals scored is set at 5.5. Additionally, the Panthers are favored on the puck line at -1.5 with odds of +115.
Before placing any bets, it is recommended to review the NHL predictions generated by a proven projection model. This model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It has shown strong performance in the second week of the 2025 NHL playoffs, holding a combined record of 79-55 on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks, which has resulted in significant returns for bettors.
Here are some of the best bets identified by the model for the Panthers vs. Maple Leafs game on Friday:
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-137)
Despite Florida`s decisive win in Game 5, the model predicts a much tighter contest on Friday. Three of the five games played so far in this series have been decided by only one goal, including one that went into overtime. Furthermore, four out of the five games have exceeded the total goals line, suggesting a pattern of high-scoring affairs between these Atlantic Division rivals. The projection model indicates that the Maple Leafs are likely to cover the puck line in nearly 80% of its simulations.
Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
Toronto`s primary center has consistently registered three or more shots on goal in nearly every playoff game this year. He has accumulated a total of 20 shots against the Panthers throughout this series. Following a six-shot performance in the Game 5 loss, he is expected to maintain his aggressive shooting approach. This player prop is available at -115 odds.
Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 points (-110)
Tkachuk has recorded four points in five games played against Toronto in this series and has successfully gotten onto the scoresheet in the last three consecutive games. When including his performance in a regular-season game against the Leafs this year, he has tallied a total of five points in six games against Toronto across the season. This player prop is listed at -110 odds.
Torin Vale 
Elton Marrow