The notion that Israelis and Palestinians can share the Holy Land living in separate, independent nations has been a seductive goal for eight decades. The vision drove on-and-off peace talks for more than 20 years. The latest roundfounderedin 2014,giving wayto a growing sentimentthat thetwo-state solution isdead. But if not two states, then what? One with Arabs and Jews living together in a state that is no longer Jewish? An enlarged Jewish state in which Palestinians are less than equal? Anyone have a better idea?
A wave of stabbings, shootings and hit-and-run attacks beginning in October 2015 has left more than 30 Israelis and more than 200 Palestinians, most of them assailants, dead. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has warned of the risk of a third intifada or uprising among his people and threatened to abandon previously signed accords with Israel. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to rule out a Palestinian state during his 2015 re-election campaign, saying later he meant such an outcome was not achievable today. In a January 2016 poll, just 43 percent of Israeli Jews said it was possible for two states to coexist peacefully. In a March survey, 74 percent of Palestinians said there was a slim or zero chance that a Palestinian state would emerge in the next five years. The last talks collapsed after Abbas’s Fatah party agreed to form a unity government with the militant Islamist group Hamas and Israel pledged to expand Jewish settlements on land Palestinians hope to make part of their future state. A subsequent war focused on the Gaza Strip cost more than 2,100 Palestinian and 71 Israeli lives.
The two-state solution dates to the 1937 Peel Commission, which recommendedpartition of what was then British Mandatory Palestine to stop Arab-Jewish violence. The United Nations embraced a different partition plan in 1947, but the Arabs rejected both, leading to Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948. A war immediately after that produced more than half a million Palestinian refugees. In a 1967 war, Israel captured, among other Arab territories, the Gaza Strip, West Bank and east Jerusalem, putting residents under military occupation, which bred Palestinian nationalism. After a Palestinian uprising that began in 1987 claimed more than 1,000 Palestinian and 200 Israeli lives, secret negotiations produced the 1993 Oslo accords. Palestinians gained limited self-rule as an interim measure. The occupation, Israeli settlement building and sporadic violence continued, however, as the two sides repeatedly failed to resolve issues standing in the way of a promised final agreement that presumably would establish a Palestinian state. Most countries already recognize Palestine as a state, but in the absence of an agreement with Israel it lacks the requirements of one, notably control over its territory. Stumbling blocks in the negotiations included where to draw borders, how to share Jerusalem and the status of Palestinian refugees. Israel acted alone in 2005, withdrawing its troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip. When Hamas subsequently took over Gaza, it became a launchpad for rockets into Israel. That has made many Israelis balk at the idea of ceding the West Bank to Palestinian control. Israel has constructed a barrier in the West Bank to restrict Palestinians from Jewish-populated areas.
Alternatives to the two-state solution include a single, binational state in which democratic elections would determine who controls the government. While many Palestinians favor this approach, few Israelis do. Jews would outnumber Arabs in such a state today but perhaps not for long given the likely return of Palestinian refugees and the higher Arab birth rate. For Jews to be a minority would defeat the purpose of creating the world’s only Jewish state. Naftali Bennett, leader of the Jewish Home political party, proposes that Israel annex the parts of the West Bank where most Jewish settlers live and offer the Palestinians there Israeli citizenship, with the rest getting expanded but still limited self-rule. Yet there is no consensus within Israel for such a plan, which would deepen the country’s diplomatic isolation. No one particularly champions perpetuation of the status quo. In the absence of progress toward two states or a sound alternative, however, that looks to be the most likely outcome for the foreseeable future.