The Dallas Stars have a chance to end their first-round playoff series against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday, currently holding a 3-2 series advantage. Dallas secured the lead by winning Game 5 decisively with a 6-2 score against the veteran Avs squad, who were Stanley Cup champions in 2022. To wrap up the series in Game 6, Dallas must secure a victory in Colorado. Should the series extend to a seventh game, it would be played back in Dallas.
According to SportsLine consensus odds, the Avalanche are favored at home with a money line of -193 (bet $193 to win $100). The Stars are the road underdogs listed at +160 (bet $100 to win $160). The total goals over/under is set at 6, with the Over favored at -120.
Colorado features numerous star players on its roster, with Nathan MacKinnon standing out as arguably the biggest name. MacKinnon led the NHL in assists and ranked second in total points during the regular season. He has accumulated seven points so far in this series against Dallas, three of which came in the Avalanche`s 5-1 win in Game 1. His prop bet for total points in Game 6 is set at 1.5. The SportsLine Projection Model gives one side of this prop bet a highly confident 5-star rating. This particular prop is included as one of the three components of today`s suggested NHL same-game parlay for the Stars-Avalanche clash.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. The model`s top-rated prop selections for each game, receiving ratings of up to five stars, are available under the `Prop Picks` tab. These highly-rated picks can be crucial for constructing successful parlay bets, including same-game parlays, on various sports betting platforms.
Below are the three highest-rated player prop picks from the SportsLine model for Thursday`s Game 6 between the Stars and Avalanche, including the potential payout if they are combined into a same-game parlay.
- Stars-Avalanche Same-Game Parlay (+338)
- Nathan MacKinnon Under 1.5 total points (-146): 5 stars
- Brock Nelson Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
- Martin Necas Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-184): 5 stars
All three of the model`s top prop plays for Thursday`s Game 6 have earned a 5-star rating, and all three players skate for the Colorado Avalanche. We`ll start with MacKinnon, the prominent star in this matchup. With seven points through five games in the series, his average is 1.4 points per game. However, over the last four contests, he has averaged just one point per game. The model specifically projects MacKinnon to score only 0.4 points in Game 6. He has also gone Under his total points prop in each of his last five home games, averaging 0.8 points during that stretch.
Brock Nelson joined Colorado via a midseason trade from the New York Islanders and has recorded two assists in this series. The model favors the Over on his 1.5 total shots on goal prop, projecting the veteran center to register 2.5 shots on goal. Nelson has averaged 2.2 shots on goal per game in this series and an impressive 3.4 shots on goal over his last five home games, exceeding his prop line in every one of them.
Martin Necas also came to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. Similar to Nelson, he is projected to surpass the 1.5 shots on goal mark. The model forecasts Necas to have 2.9 shots on goal in Game 6. He has exceeded this prop line in eight of his last 15 games against teams with a winning record, averaging 2.7 shots on goal per game over that period.
Torin Vale 
Elton Marrow